Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we find that allowing for nonlinearities significantly increases the out-of-sample performance of option and stock characteristics in predicting future option returns. Besides statistical significance, the nonlinear machine learning models generate economically sizeable profits in the long-short portfolios of equity options even after accounting for transaction costs. Although option-based characteristics are the most important standalone predictors, stock-based measures offer substantial incremental predictive power when considered alongside option-based characteristics. Finally, we provide compelling evidence that option return predictability is driven by informational frictions, costly arbitrage, and option mispricing.
When? | 23.11.2021 17:15 - 18:45 |
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Where? | PER 22 D230 Bd de Pérolles 90, 1700 Fribourg |
speaker | Pr. Florian Weigert (Université de Neuchâtel) |
Contact | Chaire de Chaire de Finance et Gouvernance d'Entreprise |
More on | Website |
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