We are pleased to announce the upcoming La Mobilière Lecture Series 2025, where we will welcome Dr. Marica Valente from Universität Innsbruck, as our distinguished guest speaker. Dr. Valente will present her research on "Quantifying Informal Farm Employment from Migration Waves," offering valuable insights into the intersection of labor markets, migration, and agricultural employment.
Join us for an engaging discussion on this pressing topic and the opportunity to exchange ideas with fellow researchers and professionals. We look forward to seeing you there!


Abstract: We introduce a “forensic” approach to detect and quantify firm-level informal employment caused by migration shocks. Focusing on agriculture and exogenous variation from the Arab Spring wave along southern Italian coasts, we use machine learning techniques to identify abnormal increases in reported labor productivity on vineyards exposed to the shock. Misreporting is heterogeneous and highest in small, remote farms. The migration shock causes a 6% rise in informal employment, corresponding to one job for every three farms on average, and 23,000 informal jobs over 2011-2012. Informal hiring increases farm profits, primarily due to labor costs reductions.