22 January 2010
[Papers]: The effect of discrete vs. continuous-valued ratings on reputation and ranking systems
Matus Medo, Joseph Rushton Wakeling
When users rate objects, a sophisticated algorithm that takes into account ability or reputation may produce a fairer or more accurate aggregation of ratings than the straightforward arithmetic average. Recently a number of authors have proposed different co-determination algorithms where estimates of user and object reputation are refined iteratively together, permitting accurate measures of both to be derived directly from the rating data. However, simulations demonstrating these methods' efficacy assumed a continuum of rating values, consistent with typical physical modelling practice, whereas in most actual rating systems only a limited range of discrete values (such as a 5-star system) is employed. We perform a comparative test of several co-determination algorithms with different scales of discrete ratings and show that this seemingly minor modification in fact has a significant impact on algorithms' performance. Paradoxically, where rating resolution is low, increased noise in users' ratings may even improve the overall performance of the system. [more]
20 August 2009
[Papers]: B-Rank: A top N Recommendation Algorithm
Marcel Blattner
In this paper B-Rank, an efficient ranking algorithm for recommender systems, is proposed. B-Rank is based on a random walk model on hypergraphs. Depending on the setup, B-Rank outperforms other state of the art algorithms in terms of precision, recall (19% - 50%), and inter list diversity (20% - 60%). B-Rank captures well the difference between popular and niche objects. The proposed algorithm produces very promising result 8ac s for sparse and dense voting matrices. Furthermore, a recommendation list update algorithm is introduced,to cope with new votes. This technique significantly reduces computational complexity. The implementation of the algorithm is simple, since B-Rank needs no parameter tuning. [more]
3 August 2009
[Papers]: Positional Effects on Citation and Readership in arXiv
Asif-ul Haque, Paul Ginsparg
arXiv.org mediates contact with the literature for entire scholarly communities, both through provision of archival access and through daily email and web announcements of new materials, potentially many screenlengths long. We confirm and extend a surprising correlation between article position in these initial announcements, ordered by submission time, and later citation impact, due primarily to intentional "self-promotion" on the part of authors. A pure "visibility" effect was also present: the subset of articles accidentally in early positions fared measurably better in the long-term citation record than those lower down. Astrophysics articles announced in position 1, for example, overall received a median number of citations 83\% higher, while those there accidentally had a 44\% visibility boost. For two large subcommunities of theoretical high energy physics, hep-th and hep-ph articles announced in position 1 had median numbers of citations 50\% and 100\% larger than for positions 5--15, and the subsets there accidentally had visibility boosts of 38\% and 71\%. <br />We also consider the positional effects on early readership. The median numbers of early full text downloads for astro-ph, hep-th, and hep-ph articles announced in position 1 were 82\%, 61\%, and 58\% higher than for lower positions, respectively, and those there accidentally had medians visibility-boosted by 53\%, 44\%, and 46\%. Finally, we correlate a variety of readership features with long-term citations, using machine learning methods, thereby extending previous results on the predictive power of early readership in a broader context. We conclude with some observations on impact metrics and dangers of recommender mechanisms. [more]
30 March 2009
[Papers]: Stabilizability and percolation in the infinite volume sandpile model
Anne Fey, Ronald Meester, Frank Redig
We study the sandpile mod bc9 el in infinite volume on $\mathbb{Z}^d$. In particular, we are interested in the question whether or not initial configurations, chosen according to a stationary measure $\mu$, are $\mu$-almost surely stabilizable. We prove that stabilizability does not depend on the particular procedure of stabilization we adopt. In $d=1$ and $\mu$ a product measure with density $\rho=1$ (the known critical value for stabilizability in $d=1$) with a positive density of empty sites, we prove that $\mu$ is not stabilizable. Furthermore, we study, for values of $\rho$ such that $\mu$ is stabilizable, percolation of toppled sites. We find that for $\rho>0$ small enough, there is a subcritical regime where the distribution of a cluster of toppled sites has an exponential tail, as is the case in the subcritical regime for ordinary percolation. [more]
30 March 2009
[Papers]: Uniqueness of the stationary distribution and stabilizability in Zhang's sandpile model
Anne Fey, Haiyan Liu, Ronald Meester
We show that Zhang's sandpile model (N,[a,b]) on N sites and with uniform additions on [a,b] has a unique stationary measure for all 0 <= a < b <= 1. This generalizes earlier results where this was shown in some special cases. <br />We define the infinite volume Zhang's sandpile model in dimension d >= 1, in which topplings occur according to a Markov toppling process, and we study the stabilizability of initial configurations chosen according to some measure \mu. We show that for a stationary ergodic measure \mu with density \rho, for all \rho < 1/2, \mu is stabilizable; for all \rho >= 1, \mu is not stabilizable; for 1/2 <= \rho < 1, when \rho is near to 1/2 or 1, both possibilities can occur. [more]
30 March 2009
[Papers]: Statistical thermodynamics of economic systems
H. Quevedo, M.N. Quevedo
We formulate thermodynamics of economic systems in terms of an arbitrary probability distribution for a conserved economic quantity. As in statistical physics, thermodynamic macroeconomic variables emerge as the mean value of microeconomic variables and their determination is reduced to the computation of the partition function, starting from an arbitrary function. Explicit hypothetical examples are given which include linear and nonlinear economic sys 595 tems, as well as multiplicative systems such as those dominated by a Pareto law distribution. We propose to use the formalism of phase transitions to study severe changes of macroeconomic variables. [more]
30 March 2009
[Papers]: Consumption and Portfolio Rules for Time-Inconsistent Investors
Jesus Marin-Solano, Jorge Navas
This paper extends the classical consumption and portfolio rules model in continuous time (Merton 1969, 6d0 1971) to the framework of decision-makers with time-inconsistent preferences. The model is solved for different utility functions for both, naive and sophisticated agents, and the results are compared. In order to solve the problem for sophisticated agents, we derive a modified HJB (Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman) equation. It is illustrated how for CRRA functions within the family of HARA functions (logarithmic and potential cases) the optimal portfolio rule does not depend on the discount rate, but this is not the case for a general utility function, such as the exponential (CARA) utility function. [more]
30 March 2009
[Papers]: Dynamic communities in multichannel data: An application to the foreign exchange market during the 2007--2008 credit crisis
Daniel J. Fenn, Mason A. Porter, Mark McDonald, Stacy Williams, Neil F. Johnson, Nick S. Jones
We study the cluster dynamics of multichannel (multivariate) time series by representing their correlations as time-dependent networks and investigating the evolution of network communities. We employ a node-centric approach that allows us to track the effects of the community evolution on the functional roles of individual nodes without having to track entire communities. As an example, we consider a foreign exchange market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. We study the period 2005-2008, which includes the recent credit and liquidity crisis. Using dynamical community detection, we find that exchange rates that are strongly attached to their community are persistently grouped with the same set of rates, whereas exchange rates that are important for the transfer of information tend to be positioned on the edges of communities. Our analysis successfully uncovers major trading changes that occurred in the market during the credit crisis. [more]
30 March 2009
[Papers]: Threshold levels in Economics
V. P. Maslov
In this paper, we present theorems specifying the critical values for series associated with debts arranged in the order of their duration. [more]