Amos Storkey
posted by Matúš Medo
(24 June 2011)
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(2486 views, 1071 downloads, 2 comments )
Prediction markets show considerable promise for developing flexible
mechanisms for machine learning. Here, machine learning markets for
multivariate systems are defined, and a utility-based framework is established
for their analysis. This differs from the usual approach of defining static
betting functions. It is shown that such markets can implement model
combination methods used in machine learning, such as product of expert and
mixture of expert approaches as equilibrium pricing models, by varying agent
utility functions. They can also implement models composed of local potentials,
and message passing methods. Prediction markets also allow for more flexible
combinations, by combining multiple different utility functions. Conversely,
the market mechanisms implement inference in the relevant probabilistic models.
This means that market mechanism can be utilized for implementing parallelized
model building and inference for probabilistic modelling.
The Econophysics Forum
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Intriguing paper generalising predidiction markets. This area has lots of potential.
Ties machine learning methods with agent based systems via markets.