Paweł Sieczka, Didier Sornette, Janusz A. Hołyst
posted by Matúš Medo
(9 February 2010)
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Inspired by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and its consequences on the
global financial system, we develop a simple model in which the Lehman default
event is quantified as having an almost immediate effect in worsening the
credit worthiness of all financial institutions in the economic network. In our
stylized description, all properties of a given firm are captured by its
effective credit rating, which follows a simple dynamics of co-evolution with
the credit ratings of the other firms in our economic network. The existence of
a global phase transition explains the large susceptibility of the system to
negative shocks. We show that bailing out the first few defaulting firms does
not solve the problem, but does have the effect of alleviating considerably the
global shock, as measured by the fraction of firms that are not defaulting as a
consequence. This beneficial effect is the counterpart of the large
vulnerability of the system of coupled firms, which are both the direct
consequences of the collective self-organized endogenous behaviors of the
credit ratings of the firms in our economic network.
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