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0 vote
pdf ps other (13039 views, 254 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
Quantitative understanding of human behaviors provides elementary comprehension of the complexity of many human-initiated systems. In this paper, we investigate the behavior of people on the $BBS$ forum by the statistical analysis of the amounts of view and reply of posts. According to our statistics, we find that the amounts of view and reply of posts follow the power law distributions with different power exponent. Furthermore, we discover that the amounts of view and reply of posts have nonlinear relationship. They are related by power function and show us straight line in log-log plot. Based on the estimation of slope and intercept of the line, we can characterize the behaviors quantitatively and know that people of Chinese forum and those of foreign forum have different preference towards replying to and viewing the posts. At last, we analyze the burstiness and memory in replying time series. They show some universal properties among different forum. All of them locate themselves in the high-$B$, low-$M$ region.
1 vote
pdf (174 views, 40 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
Using open source data, we observe the fascinating dynamics of nighttime light. Following a global economic regime shift, the planetary center of light can be seen moving eastwards at a pace of about 60 km per year. Introducing spatial light Gini coefficients, we find a universal pattern of human settlements across different countries and see a global centralization of light. Observing 160 different countries we document the expansion of developing countries, the growth of new agglomerations, the regression in countries suffering from demographic decline and the success of light pollution abatement programs in western countries.
2 votes
other (105 views, 45 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
Economists are fond of the physicists’ powerful tools. As a popular mindset Toolism is as old as economics but the transplants failed to produce the same successes as in their aboriginal environment. Economists therefore looked more and more to the math department for inspiration. Now the tide turns again. The ongoing crisis discredits standard economics and offers the chance for a comeback. Modern econophysics commands the most powerful tools and argues that there are many occasions for their application. The present paper argues that it is not a change of tools that is most urgently needed but a paradigm change.
2 votes
pdf (96 views, 82 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
In this paper we argue that if we want to find a more satisfactory approach to tackling the major socio-economic problems we are facing, we need to thoroughly rethink the basic assumptions of macroeconomics and financial theory. Making minor modifications to the standard models to remove "imperfections" is not enough, the whole framework needs to be revisited.
1 vote
ps (66 views, 34 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
The question on the title came through my mind one day as I keep in one hand a paper in nuclear physics and in the other hand a paper in finance and surprisingly conclude that the same formula appear in both articles*. Phenomena from apparently completely different field of research were solved with the help of same equation. Things are getting even weirder saying that the formula I was talking about is the time-independent Schrodinger equation.
1 vote
pdf ps other (96 views, 66 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
The following fundamental properties are proved to be true if a financial market is exhaustive: (i) Every event which is measurable by the price history at time T is independent of G_t conditional on the current price history H_t, where G_t is a superset of H_t, (ii) every event which is measurable by G_t is independent of H_T conditional on H_t. These properties are especially useful for asset valuation, portfolio optimization and risk management. An exhaustive market with respect to {F_t} is free of dominance and there are no free lunches with vanishing risk under {F_t}. Moreover, it is complete with respect to every information flow which is contained in {F_t} and the growth-optimal portfolio at time t is only determined by the past asset prices. This means any other information which is contained in F_t and available to the investor at time t is irrelevant.
1 vote
pdf ps other (55 views, 16 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
We study a subset of the movie collaboration network, imdb.com, where only adult movies are included. We show that there are many benefits in using such a network, which can serve as a prototype for studying social interactions. We find that the strength of links, i.e., how many times two actors have collaborated with each other, is an important factor that can significantly influence the network topology. We see that when we link all actors in the same movie with each other, the network becomes small-world, lacking a proper modular structure. On the other hand, by imposing a threshold on the minimum number of links two actors should have to be in our studied subset, the network topology becomes naturally fractal. This occurs due to a large number of meaningless links, namely, links connecting actors that did not actually interact. We focus our analysis on the fractal and modular properties of this resulting network, and show that the renormalization group analysis can characterize the self-similar structure of these networks.
1 vote
pdf (51 views, 34 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
The increasing interdependencies between the world’s technological, socio-economic, and environmental systems have the potential to create global catastrophic risks. We may have to re-design many global networks, otherwise they could turn into "global time bombs".
2 votes
pdf ps other (47 views, 24 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest version the model is the product of an endogenous auto-regressive component and a random rescaling factor embodying exogenous influences. Mathematical properties like increments' stationarity and ergodicity can be proven. Thanks to the relatively low number of parameters, model calibration can be conveniently based on a method of moments, as exemplified in the case of historical data of the S&P500 index. The calibrated model accounts very well for many stylized facts, like volatility clustering, power law decay of the volatility autocorrelation function, and multiscaling with time of the aggregated return distribution. In agreement with empirical evidence in finance, the dynamics is not invariant under time reversal and, with suitable generalizations, skewness of the return distribution and leverage effects can be included. The analytical tractability of the model opens interesting perspectives for applications, for instance in terms of obtaining closed formulas for derivative pricing. Further important features are: The possibility of making contact, in certain limits, with auto-regressive models widely used in finance; The possibility of partially resolving the endogenous and exogenous components of the volatility, with consistent results when applied to historical series.
1 vote
pdf ps other (43 views, 17 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
The advancement of various fields of science depends on the actions of individual scientists via the peer review process. The referees' work patterns and stochastic nature of decision making both relate to the particular features of refereeing and to the universal aspects of human behavior. Here, we show that the time a referee takes to write a report on a scientific manuscript depends on the final verdict. The data is compared to a model, where the review takes place in an ongoing competition of completing an important composite task with a large number of concurrent ones - a Deadline -effect. In peer review human decision making and task completion combine both long-range predictability and stochastic variation due to a large degree of ever-changing external "friction".