A way to fight your traffic tickets. The paper was awarded a special prize of
$400 that the author did not have to pay to the state of California.
<br />In view of enormous, extremely surprising and completely unexpected public
interest to this work, we have added an appendix answering the two most common
questions.
This Chapter is written for the Festschrift celebrating the 70th birthday of
the distinguished economist Duncan Foley from the New School for Social
Research in New York. This Chapter reviews applications of statistical physics
methods, such as the principle of entropy maximization, to the probability
distributions of money, income, and global energy consumption per capita. The
exponential probability distribution of wages, predicted by the statistical
equilibrium theory of a labor market developed by Foley in 1996, is supported
by empirical data on income distribution in the USA for the majority (about
97%) of population. In addition, the upper tail of income distribution (about
3% of population) follows a power law and expands dramatically during financial
bubbles, which results in a significant increase of the overall income
inequality. A mathematical analysis of the empirical data clearly demonstrates
the two-class structure of a society, as pointed out Karl Marx and recently
highlighted by the Occupy Movement. Empirical data for the energy consumption
per capita around the world are close to an exponential distribution, which can
be also explained by the entropy maximization principle.
FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT.
The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the
context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the
Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having:
many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition
laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial
conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities;
interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics;
combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving
subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context,
science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from
data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale
experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge
distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical
models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding
the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate
choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems
of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating
new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that
can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and
systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently
unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT
agenda.
We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most
basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price
data. The strategy is parameterized
9c5
by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are
sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q,
respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the
profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It
is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the
form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful
strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are
neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the
optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited
information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by
showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks
renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a
long-term buy-and-hold strategy.
The aim of this article is to briefly review and make new studies of
correlations and co-movements of stocks, so as to understand the
"seasonalities" and market evolution. Using the intraday data of the CAC40, we
begin by reasserting the findings of Allez and Bouchaud [New J. Phys. 13,
025010 (2011)]: the average correlation between stocks increases throughout the
day. We then use multidimensional scaling (MDS) in generating maps and
visualizing the dynamic evolution of the stock market during the day. We do not
find any marked difference in the structure of the market during a day. Another
aim is to use daily data for MDS studies, and visualize or detect specific
sectors in a market and periods of crisis. We suggest that this type of
visualization may be used in identifying potential pairs of stocks for "pairs
trade".