Modern ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has developed a vision
where the "computer" is no longer associated with the concept of a single
device or a network of devices, but rather the entirety of situated services
originating in a digital world, which are perceived through the physical world.
It is observed that services with explicit user input and output are becoming
to be replaced by a computing landscape sensing the physical world via a huge
variety of sensors, and controlling it via a plethora of actuators. The nature
and appearance of computing devices is changing to be hidden in the fabric of
everyday life, invisibly networked, and omnipresent, with applications greatly
being based on the notions of context and knowledge. Interaction with such
globe spanning, modern ICT systems will presumably be more implicit, at the
periphery of human attention, rather than explicit, i.e. at the focus of human
attention. Socio-inspired ICT assumes that future, globe scale ICT systems
should be viewed as social systems. Such a view challenges research to identify
and formalize the principles of interaction and adaptation in social systems,
so as to be able to ground future ICT systems on those principles. This
position paper therefore is concerned with the intersection of social behaviour
and modern ICT, creating or recreating social conventions and social contexts
through the use of pervasive, globe-spanning, omnipresent and participative
ICT.
We provide direct evidence of market manipulation at the beginning of the
financial crisis in November 2007. The type of manipulation, a "bear raid,"
would have been prevented by a regulation that was repealed by the Securities
and Exchange Commission in July 2007. The regulation, the uptick rule, was
designed to prevent manipulation and promote stability and was in force from
1938 as a key part of the government response to the 1929 market crash and its
aftermath. On November 1, 2007, Citigroup experienced an unusual increase in
trading volume and decrease in price. Our analysis of financial industry data
shows that this decline coincided with an anomalous increase in borrowed
shares, the selling of which would be a large fraction of the total trading
volume. The selling of borrowed shares cannot be explained by news events as
there is no corresponding increase in selling by share owners. A similar number
of shares were returned on a single day six days later. The magnitude and
coincidence of borrowing and returning of shares is evidence of a concerted
effort to drive down Citigroup's stock price and achieve a profit, i.e., a bear
raid. Interpretations and analyses of financial markets should consider the
possibility that the intentional actions of individual actors or coordinated
groups can impact market behavior. Markets are not sufficiently transparent to
reveal even major market manipulation events. Our results point to the need for
regulations that prevent intentional actions that cause markets to deviate from
equilibrium and contribute to crashes. Enforcement actions cannot reverse
severe damage to the economic system. The current "alternative" uptick rule
which is only in effect for stocks dropping by over 10% in a single day is
insufficient. Prevention may be achieved through improved availability of
market data and the original uptick rule or other transaction limitations.
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss
residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been
collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through
a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the
log periodic power law (LPPL) bubble model to analyze the development of asking
prices of residential properties in all Swiss districts between 2005 and 2013.
The results suggest that there are 11 critical districts that exhibit
signatures of bubbles, and seven districts where bubbles have already burst.
Despite these strong signatures, it is argued that, based on the current
economic environment, a soft landing rather than a severe crash is expected.
We analyze realized volatilities constructed using high-frequency stock data
on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In order to avoid non-trading hours issue in
volatility calculations we define two realized volatilities calculated
separately in the two trading sessions of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, i.e.
morning and afternoon sessions. After calculating the realized volatilities at
various sampling frequencies we evaluate the bias from the microstructure noise
as a function of sampling frequency. Taking into account of the bias to
realized volatility we examine returns standardized by realized volatilities
and confirm that price returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange are described
approximately by Gaussian time series with time-varying volatility, i.e.
consistent with a mixture of distributions hypothesis.
One of the most important features of spatial networks such as transportation
networks, power grids, Internet, neural networks, is the existence of a cost
associated with the length of links. Such a cost has a profound influence on
the global structure of these networks which usually display a hierarchical
spatial organization. The link between local constraints and large-scale
structure is however not elucidated and we introduce here a generic model for
the growth of spatial networks based on the general concept of cost benefit
analysis. This model depends essentially on one single scale and produces a
family of networks which range from the star-graph to the minimum spanning tree
and which are characterised by a continuously varying exponent. We show that
spatial hierarchy emerges naturally, with structures composed of various hubs
controlling geographically separated service areas, and appears as a
large-scale consequence of local cost-benefit considerations. Our model thus
provides the first building blocks for a better understanding of the evolution
of spatial networks and their properties. We also find that, surprisingly, the
average detour is minimal in the intermediate regime, as a result of a large
diversity in link lengths. Finally, we estimate the important parameters for
various world railway networks and find that --remarkably-- they all fall in
this intermediate regime, suggesting that spatial hierarchy is a crucial
feature for these systems and probably possesses an important evolutionary
advantage.
We use data on wealth of the richest persons taken from the "rich lists"
provided by business magazines like Forbes to verify if upper tails of wealth
distributions follow, as often claimed, a power-law behaviour. The data sets
used cover the world's richest persons over 1996-2012, the richest Americans
over 1988-2012, the richest Chinese over 2006-2012 and the richest Russians
over 2004-2011. Using a recently introduced comprehensive empirical methodology
for detecting power laws, which allows for testing goodness of fit as well as
for comparing the power-law model with rival distributions, we find that a
power-law model is consistent with data only in 35% of the analysed data sets.
Moreover, even if wealth data are consistent with the power-law model, usually
they are also consistent with some rivals like the log-normal or stretched
exponential distributions.
A book Chapter consisting of some of the main areas of research in graph
theory applied to physics. It includes graphs in condensed matter theory, such
as the tight-binding and the Hubbard model. It follows the study of graph
theory and statistical physics by means of the analysis of the Potts model.
Then, we consider the use of graph polynomials in solving Feynman integrals,
graphs and electrical networks, vibrational analysis in networked systems and
random graphs. The second part deals with the study of complex networks and
includes the models of "small-world", "scale-freeness", network motifs,
centrality measures, the use of statistical mechanics for the analysis of
networks and network communicability and the study of communities in networks.
The chapter is finished by considering some dynamical models on networks, such
as the consensus analysis, synchronization of coupled oscillators and epidemic
models on networks.
A microeconomic model is developed, which accurately predicts the shape of
personal income distribution (PID) in the United States and the evolution of
the shape over time. The underlying concept is borrowed from geo-mechanics and
thus can be considered as mechanics of income distribution. The model allows
the resolution of empirical and definitional problems associated with personal
income measurements. It also serves as a firm fundament for definitions of
income inequality as secondary derivatives from personal income distribution.
It is found that in relative terms the PID in the US has not been changing
since 1947. Effectively, the Gini coefficient has been almost constant during
the last 60 years, as reported by the Census Bureau.
The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the
interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what
can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were
published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud,
2009; Farmer and Foley, 2009; Farmer et al, 2012; Helbing, 2010; Pietronero,
2008). These papers share the idea that agent-based modeling is essential for
the better understanding of the complex socio-economic systems and consequently
better policy making. Yet in order for an agent-based model to be useful it
should also be analytically tractable, possess a macroscopic treatment
(Cristelli et al, 2012). In this work we shed a new light on our research
group's contributions towards understanding of the correspondence between the
inter-individual interactions and collective behavior. We also provide some new
insights into the implications of the global and local interactions, the
leadership and the predator-prey interactions in the complex socio-economic
systems.
The key feature of online social networks (OSN) is the ability of users to
become active, make friends and interact via comments, videos or messages with
those around them. This social interaction is typically perceived as critical
to the proper functioning of these platforms; therefore, a significant share of
OSN research in the recent past has investigated the characteristics and
importance of these social links, studying the networks' friendship relations
through their topological properties, the structure of the resulting
communities and identifying the role and importance of individual members
within these networks.
<br />In this paper, we present results from a multi-year study of the online
social network Digg.com, indicating that the importance of friends and the
friend network in the propagation of information is less than originally
perceived. While we do note that users form and maintain a social structure
along which information is exchanged, the importance of these links and their
contribution is very low: Users with even a nearly identical overlap in
interests react on average only with a probability of 2% to information
propagated and received from friends. Furthermore, in only about 50% of stories
that became popular from the entire body of 10 million news we find evidence
that the social ties among users were a critical ingredient to the successful
spread. Our findings indicate the presence of previously unconsidered factors,
the temporal alignment between user activities and the existence of additional
logical relationships beyond the topology of the social graph, that are able to
drive and steer the dynamics of such OSNs.