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2 votes
pdf other (33 views, 19 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
Modern ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has developed a vision where the "computer" is no longer associated with the concept of a single device or a network of devices, but rather the entirety of situated services originating in a digital world, which are perceived through the physical world. It is observed that services with explicit user input and output are becoming to be replaced by a computing landscape sensing the physical world via a huge variety of sensors, and controlling it via a plethora of actuators. The nature and appearance of computing devices is changing to be hidden in the fabric of everyday life, invisibly networked, and omnipresent, with applications greatly being based on the notions of context and knowledge. Interaction with such globe spanning, modern ICT systems will presumably be more implicit, at the periphery of human attention, rather than explicit, i.e. at the focus of human attention. Socio-inspired ICT assumes that future, globe scale ICT systems should be viewed as social systems. Such a view challenges research to identify and formalize the principles of interaction and adaptation in social systems, so as to be able to ground future ICT systems on those principles. This position paper therefore is concerned with the intersection of social behaviour and modern ICT, creating or recreating social conventions and social contexts through the use of pervasive, globe-spanning, omnipresent and participative ICT.
2 votes
pdf other (538 views, 363 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
We provide direct evidence of market manipulation at the beginning of the financial crisis in November 2007. The type of manipulation, a "bear raid," would have been prevented by a regulation that was repealed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in July 2007. The regulation, the uptick rule, was designed to prevent manipulation and promote stability and was in force from 1938 as a key part of the government response to the 1929 market crash and its aftermath. On November 1, 2007, Citigroup experienced an unusual increase in trading volume and decrease in price. Our analysis of financial industry data shows that this decline coincided with an anomalous increase in borrowed shares, the selling of which would be a large fraction of the total trading volume. The selling of borrowed shares cannot be explained by news events as there is no corresponding increase in selling by share owners. A similar number of shares were returned on a single day six days later. The magnitude and coincidence of borrowing and returning of shares is evidence of a concerted effort to drive down Citigroup's stock price and achieve a profit, i.e., a bear raid. Interpretations and analyses of financial markets should consider the possibility that the intentional actions of individual actors or coordinated groups can impact market behavior. Markets are not sufficiently transparent to reveal even major market manipulation events. Our results point to the need for regulations that prevent intentional actions that cause markets to deviate from equilibrium and contribute to crashes. Enforcement actions cannot reverse severe damage to the economic system. The current "alternative" uptick rule which is only in effect for stocks dropping by over 10% in a single day is insufficient. Prevention may be achieved through improved availability of market data and the original uptick rule or other transaction limitations.
2 votes
pdf (447 views, 74 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the log periodic power law (LPPL) bubble model to analyze the development of asking prices of residential properties in all Swiss districts between 2005 and 2013. The results suggest that there are 11 critical districts that exhibit signatures of bubbles, and seven districts where bubbles have already burst. Despite these strong signatures, it is argued that, based on the current economic environment, a soft landing rather than a severe crash is expected.
1 vote
pdf ps other (13 views, 6 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
We analyze realized volatilities constructed using high-frequency stock data on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. In order to avoid non-trading hours issue in volatility calculations we define two realized volatilities calculated separately in the two trading sessions of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, i.e. morning and afternoon sessions. After calculating the realized volatilities at various sampling frequencies we evaluate the bias from the microstructure noise as a function of sampling frequency. Taking into account of the bias to realized volatility we examine returns standardized by realized volatilities and confirm that price returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange are described approximately by Gaussian time series with time-varying volatility, i.e. consistent with a mixture of distributions hypothesis.
1 vote
pdf other (13 views, 5 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
One of the most important features of spatial networks such as transportation networks, power grids, Internet, neural networks, is the existence of a cost associated with the length of links. Such a cost has a profound influence on the global structure of these networks which usually display a hierarchical spatial organization. The link between local constraints and large-scale structure is however not elucidated and we introduce here a generic model for the growth of spatial networks based on the general concept of cost benefit analysis. This model depends essentially on one single scale and produces a family of networks which range from the star-graph to the minimum spanning tree and which are characterised by a continuously varying exponent. We show that spatial hierarchy emerges naturally, with structures composed of various hubs controlling geographically separated service areas, and appears as a large-scale consequence of local cost-benefit considerations. Our model thus provides the first building blocks for a better understanding of the evolution of spatial networks and their properties. We also find that, surprisingly, the average detour is minimal in the intermediate regime, as a result of a large diversity in link lengths. Finally, we estimate the important parameters for various world railway networks and find that --remarkably-- they all fall in this intermediate regime, suggesting that spatial hierarchy is a crucial feature for these systems and probably possesses an important evolutionary advantage.
1 vote
pdf other (40 views, 32 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
We use data on wealth of the richest persons taken from the "rich lists" provided by business magazines like Forbes to verify if upper tails of wealth distributions follow, as often claimed, a power-law behaviour. The data sets used cover the world's richest persons over 1996-2012, the richest Americans over 1988-2012, the richest Chinese over 2006-2012 and the richest Russians over 2004-2011. Using a recently introduced comprehensive empirical methodology for detecting power laws, which allows for testing goodness of fit as well as for comparing the power-law model with rival distributions, we find that a power-law model is consistent with data only in 35% of the analysed data sets. Moreover, even if wealth data are consistent with the power-law model, usually they are also consistent with some rivals like the log-normal or stretched exponential distributions.
1 vote
pdf (103 views, 68 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
A book Chapter consisting of some of the main areas of research in graph theory applied to physics. It includes graphs in condensed matter theory, such as the tight-binding and the Hubbard model. It follows the study of graph theory and statistical physics by means of the analysis of the Potts model. Then, we consider the use of graph polynomials in solving Feynman integrals, graphs and electrical networks, vibrational analysis in networked systems and random graphs. The second part deals with the study of complex networks and includes the models of "small-world", "scale-freeness", network motifs, centrality measures, the use of statistical mechanics for the analysis of networks and network communicability and the study of communities in networks. The chapter is finished by considering some dynamical models on networks, such as the consensus analysis, synchronization of coupled oscillators and epidemic models on networks.
1 vote
pdf (44 views, 27 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
A microeconomic model is developed, which accurately predicts the shape of personal income distribution (PID) in the United States and the evolution of the shape over time. The underlying concept is borrowed from geo-mechanics and thus can be considered as mechanics of income distribution. The model allows the resolution of empirical and definitional problems associated with personal income measurements. It also serves as a firm fundament for definitions of income inequality as secondary derivatives from personal income distribution. It is found that in relative terms the PID in the US has not been changing since 1947. Effectively, the Gini coefficient has been almost constant during the last 60 years, as reported by the Census Bureau.
2 votes
pdf (60 views, 44 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud, 2009; Farmer and Foley, 2009; Farmer et al, 2012; Helbing, 2010; Pietronero, 2008). These papers share the idea that agent-based modeling is essential for the better understanding of the complex socio-economic systems and consequently better policy making. Yet in order for an agent-based model to be useful it should also be analytically tractable, possess a macroscopic treatment (Cristelli et al, 2012). In this work we shed a new light on our research group's contributions towards understanding of the correspondence between the inter-individual interactions and collective behavior. We also provide some new insights into the implications of the global and local interactions, the leadership and the predator-prey interactions in the complex socio-economic systems.
1 vote
pdf (35 views, 12 downloads, 0 comments) [show abstract]
The key feature of online social networks (OSN) is the ability of users to become active, make friends and interact via comments, videos or messages with those around them. This social interaction is typically perceived as critical to the proper functioning of these platforms; therefore, a significant share of OSN research in the recent past has investigated the characteristics and importance of these social links, studying the networks' friendship relations through their topological properties, the structure of the resulting communities and identifying the role and importance of individual members within these networks. <br />In this paper, we present results from a multi-year study of the online social network Digg.com, indicating that the importance of friends and the friend network in the propagation of information is less than originally perceived. While we do note that users form and maintain a social structure along which information is exchanged, the importance of these links and their contribution is very low: Users with even a nearly identical overlap in interests react on average only with a probability of 2% to information propagated and received from friends. Furthermore, in only about 50% of stories that became popular from the entire body of 10 million news we find evidence that the social ties among users were a critical ingredient to the successful spread. Our findings indicate the presence of previously unconsidered factors, the temporal alignment between user activities and the existence of additional logical relationships beyond the topology of the social graph, that are able to drive and steer the dynamics of such OSNs.