A growing part of the behavioral finance literature has addressed some of the
stylized facts of financial time series as macroscopic patterns emerging from
herding interactions among groups of agents with heterogeneous trading
strategies and a limited rationality. We extend a stochastic herding formalism
introduced for the modeling of decision making among financial agents, in order
to take also into account an external influence. In particular, we study the
amplification of an external signal imposed upon the agents by a mechanism of
resonance. This signal can be interpreted as an advertising or a public
perception in favor or against one of the two possible trading behaviors, thus
periodically breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously
varying exogenous shock. The conditions for the ensemble of agents to more
accurately follow the periodicity of the signal are studied, finding a maximum
in the response of the system for a given range of values of both the noise and
the frequency of the input signal.
Online social networks play a major role in the spread of information at very
large scale and it becomes essential to provide means to analyse this
phenomenon. In this paper we address the issue of predicting the temporal
dynamics of the information diffusion process. We develop a graph-based
approach built on the assumption that the macroscopic dynamics of the spreading
process are explained by the topology of the network and the interactions that
occur through it, between pairs of users, on the basis of properties at the
microscopic level. We introduce a generic model, called T-BaSIC, and describe
how to estimate its parameters from users behaviours using machine learning
techniques. Contrary to classical approaches where the parameters are fixed in
advance, T-BaSIC's parameters are functions depending of time, which permit to
better approximate and adapt to the diffusion phenomenon observed in online
social networks. Our proposal has been validated on real Twitter datasets.
Experiments show that our approach is able to capture the particular patterns
of diffusion depending of the studied sub-networks of users and topics. The
results corroborate the "two-step" theory (1955) that states that information
flows from media to a few "opinion leaders" who then transfer it to the mass
population via social networks and show that it applies in the online context.
This work also highlights interesting recommendations for future
investigations.
Every day millions of users are connected through online social networks,
generating a rich trove of data that allows us to study the mechanisms behind
human interactions. Triadic closure has been treated as the major mechanism for
creating social links: if Alice follows Bob and Bob follows Charlie, Alice will
follow Charlie. Here we present an analysis of longitudinal micro-blogging
data, revealing a more nuanced view of the strategies employed by users when
expanding their social circles. While the network structure affects the spread
of information among users, the network is in turn shaped by this communication
activity. This suggests a link creation mechanism whereby Alice is more likely
to follow Charlie after seeing many messages by Charlie. We characterize users
with a set of parameters associated with different link creation strategies,
estimated by a Maximum-Likelihood approach. Triadic closure does have a strong
effect on link formation, but shortcuts based on traffic are another key factor
in interpreting network evolution. However, individual strategies for following
other users are highly heterogeneous. Link creation behaviors can be summarized
by classifying users in different categories with distinct structural and
behavioral characteristics. Users who are popular, active, and influential tend
to create traffic-based shortcuts, making the information diffusion process
more efficient in the network.
We analyze the entire publication database of the American Physical Society
generating longitudinal (50 years) citation networks geolocalized at the level
of single urban areas. We define the knowledge diffusion proxy, and scientific
production ranking algorithms to capture the spatio-temporal dynamics of
Physics knowledge worldwide. By using the knowledge diffusion proxy we identify
the key cities in the production and consumption of knowledge in Physics as a
function of time. The results from the scientific production ranking algorithm
allow us to characterize the top cities for scholarly research in Physics.
Although we focus on a single dataset concerning a specific field, the
methodology presented here opens the path to comparative studies of the
dynamics of knowledge across disciplines and research areas
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for studying decision making in
crowded environments. Both the amount and accuracy of the data allows to apply
tools and concepts coming from physics that studies collective and emergent
phenomena or self-organised and highly heterogeneous systems. We analyse the
activity of 29,930 non-expert individuals that represent a small portion of the
whole market trading volume. The very heterogeneous activity of individuals
obeys a Zipf's law, while synchronization network properties unveil a community
structure. We thus correlate individual activity with the most eminent
macroscopic signal in financial markets, that is volatility, and quantify how
individuals are clearly polarized by volatility. The assortativity by
attributes of our synchronization networks also indicates that individuals look
at the volatility rather than imitate directly each other thus providing an
interesting interpretation of herding phenomena in human activity. The results
can also improve agent-based models since they provide direct estimation of the
agent's parameters.
Employing a recent technique which allows the representation of nonstationary
data by means of a juxtaposition of locally stationary patches of different
length, we introduce a comprehensive analysis of the key observables in a
financial market: the trading volume and the price fluctuations. From the
segmentation procedure we are able to introduce a quantitative description of a
group of statistical features (stylizes facts) of the trading volume and price
fluctuations, namely the tails of each distribution, the U-shaped profile of
the volume in a trading session and the evolution of the trading volume
autocorrelation function. The segmentation of the trading volume series
provides evidence of slow evolution of the fluctuating parameters of each
patch, pointing to the mixing scenario. Assuming that long-term features are
the outcome of a statistical mixture of simple local forms, we test and compare
different probability density functions to provide the long-term distribution
of the trading volume, concluding that the log-normal gives the best agreement
with the empirical distribution. Moreover, the segmentation of the magnitude
price fluctuations are quite different from the results for the trading volume,
indicating that changes in the statistics of price fluctuations occur at a
faster scale than in the case of trading volume.
Firm growth process in the developing economies is known to produce
divergence in their growth path giving rise to bimodality in the size
distribution. Similar bimodality has been observed in wealth distribution as
well. Here, we introduce a modified kinetic exchange model which can reproduce
such features. In particular, we will show numerically that a nonlinear
retention rate (or savings propensity) causes this bimodality. This model can
accommodate binary trading as well as the whole system-side trading thus making
it more suitable to explain the non-standard features of wealth distribution as
well as firm size distribution.
We discuss microscopic mechanisms of complex network growth, with the special
emphasis of how these mechanisms can be evaluated from the measurements on real
networks. As an example we consider the network of citations to scientific
papers. Contrary to common belief that its growth is determined by the linear
preferential attachment, our microscopic measurements show that it is driven by
the nonlinear autocatalytic growth. This invalidates the scale-free hypothesis
for the citation network. The nonlinearity is responsible for a dramatic
dynamical phase transition: while the citation lifetime of majority of papers
is 6-10 years, the highly-cited papers have practically infinite lifetime.
Online systems where users purchase or collect items of some kind can be
effectively represented by temporal bipartite networks where both nodes and
links are added with time. We use this representation to predict which items
might become popular in the near future. Various prediction methods are
evaluated on three distinct datasets originating from popular online services
(Movielens, Netflix, and Digg). We show that the prediction performance can be
further enhanced if the user social network is known and centrality of
individual users in this network is used to weight their actions.
A book Chapter consisting of some of the main areas of research in graph
theory applied to physics. It includes graphs in condensed matter theory, such
as the tight-binding and the Hubbard model. It follows the study of graph
theory and statistical physics by means of the analysis of the Potts model.
Then, we consider the use of graph polynomials in solving Feynman integrals,
graphs and electrical networks, vibrational analysis in networked systems and
random graphs. The second part deals with the study of complex networks and
includes the models of "small-world", "scale-freeness", network motifs,
centrality measures, the use of statistical mechanics for the analysis of
networks and network communicability and the study of communities in networks.
The chapter is finished by considering some dynamical models on networks, such
as the consensus analysis, synchronization of coupled oscillators and epidemic
models on networks.