One of the fundamental principles driving diversity or homogeneity in domains
such as cultural differentiation, political affiliation, and product adoption
is the tension between two forces: influence (the tendency of people to become
similar to others they interact with) and selection (the tendency to be
affected most by the behavior of others who are already similar). Influence
tends to promote homogeneity within a society, while selection frequently
causes fragmentation. When both forces are in effect simultaneously, it becomes
an interesting question to analyze which societal outcomes should be expected.
<br />In order to study the joint effects of these forces more formally, we analyze
a natural model built upon active lines of work in political opinion formation,
cultural diversity, and language evolution. Our model posits an arbitrary graph
structure describing which "types" of people can influence one another: this
captures effects based on the fact that people are only influenced by
sufficiently similar interaction partners. In a generalization of the model, we
introduce another graph structure describing which types of people even so much
as come in contact with each other. These restrictions on interaction patterns
can significantly alter the dynamics of the process at the population level.
<br />For the basic version of the model, in which all individuals come in contact
with all others, we achieve an essentially complete characterization of
(stable) equilibrium outcomes and prove convergence from all starting states.
For the other extreme case, in which individuals only come in contact with
others who have the potential to influence them, the underlying process is
significantly more complicated; nevertheless we present an analysis for certain
graph structures.
The advancement of various fields of science depends on the actions of
individual scientists via the peer review process. The referees' work patterns
and stochastic nature of decision making both relate to the particular features
of refereeing and to the universal aspects of human behavior. Here, we show
that the time a referee takes to write a report on a scientific manuscript
depends on the final verdict. The data is compared to a model, where the review
takes place in an ongoing competition of completing an important composite task
with a large number of concurrent ones - a Deadline -effect. In peer review
human decision making and task completion combine both long-range
predictability and stochastic variation due to a large degree of ever-changing
external "friction".
We study the time evolution of ranking and spectral properties of the Google
matrix of English Wikipedia hyperlink network during years 2003 - 2011. The
statistical properties of ranking of Wikipedia articles via PageRank and
CheiRank probabilities, as well as the matrix spectrum, are shown to be
stabilized for 2007 - 2011. A special emphasis is done on ranking of Wikipedia
personalities and universities. We show that PageRank selection is dominated by
politicians while 2DRank, which combines PageRank and CheiRank, gives more
accent on personalities of arts. The Wikipedia PageRank of universities
recovers 80 percents of top universities of Shanghai ranking during the
considered time period.
The following fundamental properties are proved to be true if a financial
market is exhaustive: (i) Every event which is measurable by the price history
at time T is independent of G_t conditional on the current price history H_t,
where G_t is a superset of H_t, (ii) every event which is measurable by G_t is
independent of H_T conditional on H_t. These properties are especially useful
for asset valuation, portfolio optimization and risk management. An exhaustive
market with respect to {F_t} is free of dominance and there are no free lunches
with vanishing risk under {F_t}. Moreover, it is complete with respect to every
information flow which is contained in {F_t} and the growth-optimal portfolio
at time t is only determined by the past asset prices. This means any other
information which is contained in F_t and available to the investor at time t
is irrelevant.
We introduce a simple agent-based model which allows us to analyze three
stylized facts: a fat-tailed size distribution of companies, a `tent-shaped'
growth rate distribution, the scaling relation of the growth rate variance with
firm size, and the causality between them. This is achieved under the simple
hypothesis that firms compete for a scarce quantity (either aggregate demand or
workforce) which is allocated probabilistically. The model allows us to relate
size and growth rate distributions. We compare the results of our model to
simulations with other scaling relationships, and to similar models and relate
it to existing theory.
Financial markets are prominent examples for highly non-stationary systems.
Sample averaged observables such as variances and correlation coefficients
strongly depend on the time window in which they are evaluated. This implies
severe limitations for approaches in the spirit of standard equilibrium
statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. Nevertheless, we show that there are
similar generic features which we uncover in the empirical return distributions
for whole markets. We explain our findings by setting up a random matrix model.
The probability distribution of number of ties of an individual in a social
network follows a scale-free power-law. However, how this distribution arises
has not been conclusively demonstrated in direct analyses of people's actions
in social networks. Here, we perform a causal inference analysis and find an
underlying cause for this phenomenon. Our analysis indicates that heavy-tailed
degree distribution is causally determined by similarly skewed distribution of
human activity. Specifically, the degree of an individual is entirely random -
following a "maximum entropy attachment" model - except for its mean value
which depends deterministically on the volume of the users' activity. This
relation cannot be explained by interactive models, like preferential
attachment, since the observed actions are not likely to be caused by
interactions with other people.
How much did a network change since yesterday? How different is the wiring
between Bob's brain (a left-handed male) and Alice's brain (a right-handed
female)? Graph similarity with known node correspondence, i.e. the detection of
changes in the connectivity of graphs, arises in numerous settings. In this
work, we formally state the axioms and desired properties of the graph
similarity functions, and evaluate when state-of-the-art methods fail to detect
crucial connectivity changes in graphs. We propose DeltaCon, a principled,
intuitive, and scalable algorithm that assesses the similarity between two
graphs on the same nodes (e.g. employees of a company, customers of a mobile
carrier). Experiments on various synthetic and real graphs showcase the
advantages of our method over existing similarity measures. Finally, we employ
DeltaCon to real applications: (a) we classify people to groups of high and low
creativity based on their brain connectivity graphs, and (b) do temporal
anomaly detection in the who-emails-whom Enron graph.
Punishment may deter antisocial behavior. Yet to punish is costly, and the
costs often do not offset the gains that are due to elevated levels of
cooperation. However, the effectiveness of punishment depends not only on how
costly it is, but also on the circumstances defining the social dilemma. Using
the snowdrift game as the basis, we have conducted a series of economic
experiments to determine whether severe punishment is more effective than mild
punishment. We have observed that severe punishment is not necessarily more
effective, even if the cost of punishment is identical in both cases. The
benefits of severe punishment become evident only under extremely adverse
conditions, when to cooperate is highly improbable in the absence of sanctions.
If cooperation is likely, mild punishment is not less effective and leads to
higher average payoffs, and is thus the much preferred alternative. Presented
results suggest that the positive effects of punishment stem not only from
imposed fines, but may also have a psychological background. Small fines can do
wonders in motivating us to chose cooperation over defection, but without the
paralyzing effect that may be brought about by large fines. The later should be
utilized only when absolutely necessary.
Modern ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has developed a vision
where the "computer" is no longer associated with the concept of a single
device or a network of devices, but rather the entirety of situated services
originating in a digital world, which are perceived through the physical world.
It is observed that services with explicit user input and output are becoming
to be replaced by a computing landscape sensing the physical world via a huge
variety of sensors, and controlling it via a plethora of actuators. The nature
and appearance of computing devices is changing to be hidden in the fabric of
everyday life, invisibly networked, and omnipresent, with applications greatly
being based on the notions of context and knowledge. Interaction with such
globe spanning, modern ICT systems will presumably be more implicit, at the
periphery of human attention, rather than explicit, i.e. at the focus of human
attention. Socio-inspired ICT assumes that future, globe scale ICT systems
should be viewed as social systems. Such a view challenges research to identify
and formalize the principles of interaction and adaptation in social systems,
so as to be able to ground future ICT systems on those principles. This
position paper therefore is concerned with the intersection of social behaviour
and modern ICT, creating or recreating social conventions and social contexts
through the use of pervasive, globe-spanning, omnipresent and participative
ICT.